An increasing body of literature suggests that agriculture is ‘feminizing’ in many low- and middle-income countries. Definitions of the feminization of agriculture vary, as do interpretations of what drives the expansion of women’s roles in agriculture over time. Understanding whether, how, and why the feminization of agriculture is occurring requires effective research methodologies capable of producing nuanced data. This article builds on six research projects that set out to deepen narratives of feminization of agriculture by empirically exploring the dynamics and impacts of diverse processes of feminization of agriculture. The researchers working on these projects reflect on how their methodological innovations enabled them to obtain new, or more nuanced, insights into the processes of feminization of agriculture. A first insight is that the way ‘feminization of agriculture’ is defined and operationalized plays a decisive role in the evidence we produce on the process. Second, bias in data on feminization can arise unless researchers examine well-recognized gender norms that mediate whether women are acknowledged by wider society as legitimate farmers. Third, the feminization of agriculture should be understood as a non-linear continuum. Research methodologies need to be capable of capturing dynamics, complexity, as well as multiple and diverse context- and time-specific drivers. Researchers need to exercise critical awareness of such biases when they are constructing data to measure or proxy aspects of feminization to avoid significantly underestimating women’s roles in agriculture.
Agricultural advisory services are generally biased towards men, with information targeted mainly to male members within the household, and in formats that often reinforce male dominance in agricultural decision-making. Such biases affect women’s ability to make informed decisions and limit their intra-household bargaining power. Because women’s empowerment in agriculture has many well-established benefits, designing inclusive agricultural extension and advisory services is important. In this study, we challenge the assumption that information is fully shared between co-heads of a household. We also test if portraying women as equally able farmers challenges gender norms and stereotypes in agriculture. We do this through a field experiment in eastern Uganda in which videos that provide information on recommended maize-farming practices are shown to monogamous maize-farming households. In the experiment, we manipulate who within the household is exposed to the information contained in the video. Furthermore, we vary the gender of the person delivering the information in the video. We find that targeting the female co-head alone with information increases her knowledge about recommended practices, her role in agricultural decision-making, her subsequent adoption of recommended practices and inputs, and yields on fields she manages, while the male co-head’s knowledge about the practices and his unilateral decision-making is reduced. When both co-heads are targeted, joint adoption of recommended practices and inputs increases, while the male co-head’s unilateral decision-making is reduced. We find some support that featuring female role models in the videos challenges men’s beliefs and stereotypes about women’s roles in agriculture, and encourages adoption of recommended practices by women. We conclude that if the aim is to empower women, most gains can be made by re-designing advisory services to target information exclusively to the female co-head within the household. Challenging gender stereotypes may create room for increasing women’s involvement in agriculture.
In low- and middle-income countries, poor cooperation between members of smallholder agricultural households may lead to inefficient allocation of productive resources. This study estimates the causal mediating effects of cooperation between spouses on household welfare and public goods provision in Ugandan and Tanzanian monogamous smallholder coffee farming households. The random encouragement to participate in an intensive training program coaching couples in farming as a household enterprise and participatory intrahousehold decision making, which stimulates cooperation and, in turn, household welfare and public goods provision, enables estimating causal mediating effects while avoiding challenges of endogeneity. Spousal cooperation has positive mediating effects on household welfare, measured by total household income per capita and food security, and on household public goods provision, measured by the adoption intensity of agronomic practices and use of improved seed for food crops. Spousal cooperation has larger effects on total household income per capita with longer duration of marriage.
To gain a better understanding of intrahousehold bargaining processes, surveys increasingly collect data from co-heads individually, especially on decision-making, asset ownership and labour contributions. However, answers provided by co-heads to the same set of questions often differ substantially. Recent research suggests that while some of this disagreement is due to random measurement error and cognitive bias, part also reflects non-overlapping information sets. We document differences in answers between male and female co-heads in monogamous smallholder maize-farming households in Uganda. We first confirm that not all disagreement can be explained by measurement error or bias. Using a field experiment, we then test if disagreement is due to information asymmetry between male and female co-heads. We also test an alternative explanation where discord is attributed to co-heads’ tendency to respond in line with prevailing gender norms and social customs. While the interventions did seem to reduce discord in survey response about decision-making, we do not find that information asymmetry nor reporting in line with gender norms and customs are the primary drivers of disagreement.
Faced by imperfect information about the performance of value chain actors, transactions are often based on perceptions. Inaccurate perceptions may result in inefficient value chains. Biased perceptions, especially about women, may affect inclusiveness. We aim to compare perceptions by farmers, input dealers, traders, and processors in Uganda’s maize value chain. Specifically, we compare ratings given by farmers to self-ratings of dealers, traders and processors. We test if male farmers rate others differently as compared to female farmers; if men and women rate themselves differently; and whether female farmers rate female value chain actors more highly by virtue of being of the same gender (homophily). A random sample of 1526 small-scale farmers growing maize from the Eastern region in Uganda were asked to rate agro-input dealers, traders, and processors by ease of access, quality of services, price competitiveness, and reputation. These value chain actors—78 agro-input dealers, 341 assembly traders, and 174 processors—were then asked to assess themselves. Descriptive analysis, t-tests, and multivariate regression with two-way non-nested clustering were used for the analysis. We find that input dealers, traders, and processors rate themselves more highly than farmers rate them. For self-assessments, the gender of the value chain actor does not matter. Female farmers tend to rate the dealers, traders, and processors more highly than male farmers do. The sex of the actor rated does not affect the rating they receive; we also find no signs that women rate women more highly than they rate men. It is reassuring to see that in Eastern Uganda, women as dealers, traders, and processors were not rated lower than their male counterparts. It was equally reassuring to see that dealers, traders, and processors were rated well for quality by farmers—a frequent concern in Uganda is that they provide poor service. They did not score so well, however, for competitive prices. Policies to encourage competition and new entrants may help. That dealers, traders, and processors rate themselves more highly than farmers do, could lead to complacency, in turn hindering investment and innovation. The gap in perceptions might be reduced if there were certification by an independent agency, or if farmer ratings were crowd sourced.
Differences in world market participation and access to value-chain technologies have resulted in uneven experiences across countries. In this paper, we explore their impact on prices in the value chain, using the examples of Ethiopia and Uganda. We first develop a conceptual framework, and then validate the model using primary price data collected at several levels in the dairy value chains in both countries. We find that prices are lower in Uganda than in Ethiopia, reflecting their respective net trade status. Moreover, despite shorter value chains, we find much more significant effects of distance from the capital on milk prices in Ethiopia than in Uganda. This is linked to the presence of milk chilling centers in Uganda. While such technology is important for milk quality, we find here that it also has the added benefit to reduce the impact of farmers’ remoteness on prices and allows for more geographically extended value chains.
In developing countries, incomplete and/or asymmetric information contributes to inefficiencies in food supply chains. Various products and services have emerged that rely on Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) to facilitate information flows between agro-input providers, farmers, traders, and consumers. However, not all initiatives are equally effective and many struggle to reach scale. In this article, I review some of the earlier services that generally targeted farmers with price information to reduce search costs and increase their bargaining power vis-a-vis traders. I reflect on the reasons why these initiatives often led to disappointing results and provide examples of (complementary) interventions that look more promising. Furthermore, I highlight some of the dangers of relying too much on ICT-mediated information, such as exclusionary networks, bias in crowdsourced data, and “fake news.” Finally, I explore why ICT applications that address information inefficiencies seem to be less successful than innovations that address other barriers to efficient and inclusive food supply chain development, such as risk or credit constraints.
With new possibilities offered by information and communications technology (ICT), an abundance of products, services, and projects has emerged with the promise of revitalizing agricultural extension in developing countries. However, a growing body of evidence suggests that not all ICT-enabled extension approaches are equally effective in improving adoption, productivity, income, or welfare outcomes. In this review, we explore various conceptual and methodological threads in the literature on ICT-enabled extension in developing countries. We examine the role of multiple impact pathways, highlighting how ICTs influence behaviors and preferences, gender and intrahousehold dynamics, spillovers, and public worker incentives. We also explore the opportunities presented by ICT-enabled extension for increasing the methodological rigor with which extension outcomes are identified. These conceptual and methodological insights—coupled with empirical evidence from prior studies—offer direction for several lines of policy-relevant research on ICT-enabled extension.
Pervasive use of poor quality seed remains an important reason for low yields throughout the developing world. We explore ways to increase the quality of the local stock of seed tubers among a sample of Ugandan potato farmers. Using videos, we provide agricultural extension information on (i) how to select the best seed tubers and (ii) how to properly handle and store seed tubers until the next planting season. The relative effectiveness of the information interventions is tested using an individually randomized controlled trial where we model spillovers using a randomization-based framework for estimating causal effects under interference between units. Especially the video on seed selection translated into increased awareness and adoption of recommended practices, increased probability of using improved inputs, as well as higher consumption. Interventions aimed at improving seed quality are important in the absence of access to high-quality seed. Video messages are becoming increasingly useful as a complementary tool in agricultural extension. Randomization-based inference can be used to take into account spillover effects in the analysis rather than the design phase of an experiment. This is the first study to address seed quality of potato tubers in a real-world setting using videos.
Driven by increased demand from both local and export markets and facilitated by far-reaching liberalization and privatization policies, the dairy sub-sector in Uganda has undergone significant changes in the last decade. With a comparative advantage in milk production, the southwest of Uganda has started to attract considerable Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in processing capacity, mainly targeting the export market. As a result, processing capacity increased five-fold and dairy became Uganda’s third most important export product, coming from negligible amounts a decade earlier. In this study, we use data collected at different nodes within the value chain to identify some of the key innovations in these value chains. This is done by comparing the area that received the bulk of FDI to a similar area that did not. Furthermore, we also provide an econometric analysis that focuses on the integration of value chain actors into modern value chains more broadly defined. We find that dairy value chains are transforming rapidly, but innovations are more pronounced in areas that received the bulk of FDI. Our analysis further underscores the importance of milk collection centers, which often take the form of farmer cooperatives, in providing many of the support services that enable other actors in the value chain to produce sufficient milk, and maintain milk sanitation levels necessary for a modern export sector to emerge.
Agricultural advisory services generally rely on interpersonal knowledge transfers by agricultural extension agents who visit farmers to provide information. This approach is not always effective and has proved hard to scale sustainably, particularly in highly dispersed smallholder farming systems. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have been advanced as a promising way to overcome many of the problems associated with conventional agricultural extension. We evaluate the effectiveness of an ICT‐mediated approach to deliver agricultural information in a field experiment conducted among small‐scale maize farmers in eastern Uganda. Three complementary technologies designed to address both informational and behavioral constraints to technical change are considered. First, we investigate the effectiveness of audiovisual messages (video) as a means of delivering information on input use and improved maize management practices to farmers. Second, we quantify the additional impact of complementing video with an interactive voice response (IVR) service. Third, we estimate the incremental effect of time‐sensitive short message services (SMS) messages designed to remind farmers about applying key practices at specific points during the season. We find that households that were shown a short video on how to become better maize farmers were performing significantly better on a knowledge test, more likely to apply recommended practices, and more likely to use fertilizer than households that did not view the video. These same households also reported maize yields about 10.5% higher than those that did not view the video. We find little evidence of an incremental effect of the IVR service or SMS reminders.
Optimal decision making among the poor is often hampered by insufficient knowledge, false beliefs or wrong perceptions. This paper investigates the role of information in the decision to use modern inputs and adopt recommended agronomic practices among rice farmers in Uganda. Using field experiments, I tested whether the provision of technical information about the correct use of modern inputs and practices affects adoption of these technologies, and subsequent rice production. In addition, I assessed whether providing information aimed at changing the perception of the expected returns on such intensification investments led to different outcomes. In both experiments, the treatments took the form of short agricultural extension information videos shown to individual farmers using tablet computers. I found that both interventions resulted in increased intensification of rice cultivation, but only after accounting for the possibility of interference between farmers. These results confirm the importance of peer effects in increasing the effectiveness of information for technology adoption.
The Food Consumption Score (FCS), a food frequency indicator developed by the World Food Programme (WFP) that aims to capture both diet quantity and quality of household food consumption, has been validated only against calorie intake in a limited number of rather small countries. This article examines the potential of FCS to capture variation in diet quantity and quality using the 2004/5 Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey (HCES) conducted in the DRC. In addition to quantifying the strength of association between FCS and a series of benchmark variables, a set of nutrient-consistent regional adequacy levels is proposed as an alternative to the standard WFP’s cut-off in identifying food insecure households. We point out several key issues. First, for a country the size of the DRC, but possibly in other settings too, it is necessary to adopt a geographically disaggregated approach to account for regional diversity in food systems and resulting diets. Second, FCS can indeed capture qualitative aspects of food consumption in addition to quantitative ones. Third, increasing the number of food groups, removing their associated weights or truncating their food group score does not structurally improve FCS’s correlation with the benchmark variables. Fourth, the WFP’s threshold is only weakly consistent in terms of nutrient adequacy, marginally relevant to each of the country’s regions and markedly less sensitive and specific compared to the set of nutrient-consistent regional thresholds, which we propose based on the empirical relation between FCS and the mean adequacy ratio (MAR). Lastly, despite several methodological challenges, this work demonstrates the potential use of HCES to conduct this sort of food security validation exercises.
The baraza project, initiated in 2009, is a government-led initiative in Uganda that aims to increase the quality of public service delivery through the provision of information and involvement of beneficiaries in project monitoring by means of providing citizens with an advocacy forum. This article provides a qualitative assessment of the self-identified pathways through which barazas are thought to influence public service delivery, as expressed by participant stakeholders. It also explores motivating factors behind behavioural changes of stakeholders, hindrances to achieving positive outcomes, and opportunities for the implementation of future barazas.
For developing countries, whose governments are faced with volatile world food prices, the appropriate policy response hinges on who are the likely winners and losers. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the impact of higher commodity prices on different subgroups of society. We compare the results of a method that is popular with policy makers because of its parsimony and ease of interpretation with the results of a more complex and data-intensive general-equilibrium model. Using historical prices between 2008 and 2011 for Uganda, we find that both methods predict high prices benefit poor rural farmers, but more so if a more elaborate model is used.
The use of modern inputs such as synthetic fertilizers is suggested as the best way to increase crop yields in an ecologically sustainable way. However, such inputs may be perceived as risky, and adoption may depend on how much extra risk a farm household can afford. This article describes the potential for fertilizer and pesticide use among Ugandan small-holder rice and potato farmers. In addition, it documents patterns observed in socio-economic data that suggest risk is an important barrier to sustainable crop intensification practices. We find that households that engage in risk management strategies, such as investing in risk reducing technology or engaging in precautionary savings, are more likely to practice intensified cropping. We also elaborate on the policy consequences.
To feed a growing population, agricultural productivity needs to increase dramatically. Agricultural extension information, with its public, non-rival nature, is generally undersupplied, and public provision remains challenging. In this study, simple agricultural extension video messages, delivered through Android tablets, were tested in the field to determine if they increased farmers’ knowledge of recommended practices on (i) potato seed selection and (ii) seed storage and handling among a sample of potato farmers in southwestern Uganda. Using a field experiment with ex ante matching in a factorial design, it was established that showing agricultural extension videos significantly increased farmers’ knowledge. However, results suggested impact pathways that went beyond simply replicating what was shown in the video. Video messages may have triggered a process of abstraction, whereby farmers applied insights gained in one context to a different context.
Rapidly expanding mobile network coverage in developing countries offers new ways to reach poor farmers in isolated places. This article explores the potential for Information and Communication Technology to provide agricultural information and extension services to smallholder farmers, and links this to empirical insights of an intervention in Uganda, where community knowledge workers rely on mobile devices to deliver context- and time-sensitive data to farmers. Consistent with theoretical insights related to information inefficiencies, we find that the intervention leads farmers to move away from low-risk low-return crops toward more commercially oriented commodities. Our analysis also suggests that, for the case of maize, the intervention causes farmers to sell less on the market, but at significantly higher prices.
Human fertility can affect agricultural production through its effect on supply of agricultural labor. Using the fact that in traditional, patriarchal societies, sons are generally preferred to daughters, we isolate exogenous variation in the number of children born to a mother and relate it to the agricultural labor supply and production in Uganda, which has a dominant agricultural sector and high fertility. We find that fertility has a sizable negative effect on household labor allocation to subsistence agriculture. Households with lower fertility devote significantly more time to land preparation and weeding; larger households grow less matooke and sweet potatoes. We find no significant effect on agricultural productivity in terms of yield per land area.
After two debt relief initiatives launched in 1996 (the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative, HIPC) and in 1999 (The enhanced HIPC initiative), the G7 decided to go further by canceling (most of) the remaining multilateral debt for these HIPC countries through the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI, 2005). Building on earlier literature that tries to assess the fiscal response effects of HIPC debt relief, we extend this assessment by explicitly including the fiscal response effects of MDRI debt relief, and by using an extended dataset and alternative econometric techniques, in order to have sufficient hindsight and better tackle methodological issues such as country-specific effects. We confirm earlier findings that debt relief, and especially the enhanced HIPC initiative, has had a positive impact on recipient country total domestic revenue and public investment (as percentage of GDP). Additionally, thanks to our large observation span, we also observe that the MDRI led to a significant increase in current primary expenditures and domestic revenue ratios, although these effects are on average smaller than the HIPC Initiative ones.
This research was also featured in The Economist.
In rural African societies, socioeconomic differentiation linked to gender and social status exerts an important influence on the distribution of common-pool resources. Through a behavioral experiment conducted in 2008 in rural Tanzania, this contribution examines the influence of gender and social status on distribution behavior of users of self-governed common watersheds. It finds that men and women with low social status distribute water equally when water is abundant but keep larger shares when water is scarce, although low-status women try to be as fair as possible at the expense of their returns from irrigated agriculture. Men of high social status keep more than half of the available water for themselves, both in abundance and scarcity, and deprive others from sizeable returns from irrigated agriculture. Women of high social status share altruistically when water is abundant and equally when water is scarce, giving up on returns from irrigated agriculture.
This research was also featured in The Economist.
We revisit a methodology to gauge the short-term effect of price changes on smallholder farmer’s welfare that is popular amongst policy makers and academia. Realising that farmers face substantial seasonal price volatility over the course of an agricultural year, we pay particular attention to the timing of sales and purchases. In addition we depart from the implicit assumption that all farmers scattered across rural areas face the same prices when interacting with markets. Using maize marketing during the 2007–2008 agricultural season in a sample of smallholders in Tanzania as an illustration, we find that especially poor farmers face greater losses than what a standard analysis would suggest. We also relate our methodology to factors that are likely to affect potential benefits or costs from inter-temporal and spatial price dispersion, such as means of transport, access to price information and credit.
We study repeated water allocation decisions among small scale irrigation users in Tanzania. In a treatment replicating water scarcity conditions, convexities in production make that substantial efficiency gains can be obtained by deviating from equal sharing, leading to an equity–efficiency trade-off. In a repeated game setting, it becomes possible to reconcile efficiency with equity by rotating the person who receives the largest share, but such a strategy requires a longer run perspective. Correlating experimental data from an irrigation game with individual time preference data, we find that less patient irrigators are less likely to use a rotation strategy.
This article studies how users of scarce common water resources deal with equity-efficiency trade-offs. For this purpose, we conduct a field lab experiment in Tanzania that simulates the distribution of irrigation water between upstream and downstream users. We find a strong preference for equal sharing even if this comes with large foregone efficiency gains. However, we also find indications that efficiency considerations are taken into account. (Selfish) deviations from equal sharing are more likely implemented when they are efficiency-enhancing. Finally, we detect a tendency to alternate between altruistic and selfish sharing, which reconciles equity and efficiency considerations.
Assumptions about individual time preferences are important for explanations of poverty and development. Data from a large-scale elicitation exercise in Tanzania show significantly higher levels of impatience in urban areas than in rural areas. This result remains robust to adding controls for socio-economic differences between rural and urban areas, which possibly correlate with time preferences. We attribute this to differences in ‘modernisation’ between urban and rural areas, with modernisation leading to increased impatience. This is corroborated by the observed positive correlation between impatience and education; the latter being an important vehicle of modernisation for traditional societies in Tanzania.
Recent research underscores the dual role played by institutions for deciphering the financial globalization – growth nexus. On the one hand, for capital account liberalization to be growth enhancing, a critical level of local institutional quality is needed. On the other hand, increased integration in the global financial system strengthens these countries’ institutions. We argue that this complex relationship may give rise to multiple equilibria in the dynamics of financial global integration: haphazard capital account liberalization may lead to situations where well integrated nations become increasingly better integrated, while poorly integrated nations are left at the margin. To test this hypothesis, we check whether controlling for the quality of institutions eliminates conditional convergence of global financial integration. Our results confirm that growth in financial integration is non-linear, and that this non-linearity disappears once we control for the quality of institutions.
Have donors changed their aid-allocation criteria over the past three decades toward greater selectivity, a frequently stated goal of the international development community? Using data on how 22 donors allocated their bilateral aid among 147 countries over 1970–2004, the article finds that after the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989 and especially in the late 1990s, bilateral aid responded more to poverty and the quality of the policy and institutional environment in the recipient countries. Furthermore, the sensitivity of aid allocation to the country’s size and its debt burden has declined over time. These results are robust to different samples and model specifications, various econometric techniques, and alternative measures of institutional quality. While the specific factors causing these changes cannot be identified—these presumably include geopolitical and economic concerns and the many changes in the international aid architecture—donors still differ greatly in their selectivity. This suggests that further, multifaceted reforms are needed to ensure even greater selectivity of aid.
As part of the efforts of the international donor community to scale up aid to Africa, substantial debt relief has been granted in recent years through the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and its successor, the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative. This paper tries to assess, for a sample of 24 African countries that have at least reached decision point status in the HIPC Initiative, to what extent this debt relief has created fiscal space in recipient country budgets, and what, on average, the actual fiscal response effects have been, relative to other types of aid. Inspired by the fiscal response literature, we model public finance behaviour as a system of structural equations and estimate the reduced form parameters in a Vector Autoregressive framework. In general, we are unable to find evidence that debt relief might provoke no or even perverse fiscal responses. On average, debt relief affects public finance behaviour in a desired way, with effects being most similar to those of its most direct substitute, programme grants.
During the 1990s, the Zambian economy underwent major structural adjustments. This paper presents an application of a recently proposed poverty decomposition that attributes changes in poverty to income growth, changes in inequality and population dynamics. Our results confirm earlier findings that the existence of a severe urban bias in the economy effectively shielded large parts of the rural population from the economic slump caused by the structural adjustments. In addition, we find that the exodus from urban centres that followed the adjustments contributed significantly to the increase in national poverty. The latter finding highlights the importance of considering population movements when studying poverty, especially in situations where policy changes affect migrant labour, as was the case for the Zambian copper industry.
Pushed by increasing availability of price data and extensive market liberalisation efforts in many developing countries, research on food market integration has evolved rapidly over the last two decades. Empirical methods to measure market integration diverged in two directions: on the one hand, there is the parity bounds model (PBM) using a switching regressions technique, while on the other hand the use of threshold autoregressive (TAR) models has been proposed. This article provides a discussion on the two methods and argues that TAR models are better able to capture the dynamics of the arbitrage process underlying interconnected markets. Furthermore, we extend the standard TAR model to include a time trend in both the threshold and the adjustment parameter. Using weekly maize price data on seven selected markets in Tanzania, we illustrate how both transaction cost and the speed of adjustment have changed during the nineties.
Poverty indicators are generally identified on the basis of household consumption expenditure data drawn from nationally representative household budget surveys. In this study, we explore the potential role for more qualitative methods in generating poverty indicators and profiles that incorporate local perspectives on poverty. More specifically, on the basis of participatory wealth rankings, we identify covariates that could serve as poverty indicators. Furthermore, we check the performance of these indicators when using a more conventional indicator or well-being. To do so, we conducted participatory wealth rankings in four villages in the Southern Highlands of Tanzania. Then, we administered a small questionnaire-based survey to the ranked households to probe for possible poverty indicators that can broadly be classified under four categories, namely household characteristics, human capital, housing and durables, productive assets. We find that most of the routinely used poverty indicators remain valid, but for some, we also find interesting differences.
Substantial amounts of debt relief have been granted to a set of low-income countries, as an alternative aid modality. Although the theoretical case for debt relief is firmly established, only empirical analysis can show whether debt relief is indeed a (more) effective mode of aid delivery. We investigate the linkages between debt relief and other fiscal variables such as current expenditure, government investment, taxation and domestic borrowing, in comparison to the effects of grants and concessional loans. We find that the fiscal impact of HIPC debt relief follows fairly complex dynamics. For example, debt relief initially reduces government investment, but the effect becomes positive after two years, well outperforming other modes of aid delivery.
(2021) The Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension
Pervasive use of poor quality seed remains an important reason for low yields throughout the developing world. We explore ways to increase the quality of the local stock of seed tubers among a sample of Ugandan potato farmers. Using videos, we provide agricultural extension information on (i) how to select the best seed tubers and (ii) how to properly handle and store seed tubers until the next planting season. The relative effectiveness of the information interventions is tested using an individually randomized controlled trial where we model spillovers using a randomization-based framework for estimating causal effects under interference between units. Especially the video on seed selection translated into increased awareness and adoption of recommended practices, increased probability of using improved inputs, as well as higher consumption. Interventions aimed at improving seed quality are important in the absence of access to high-quality seed. Video messages are becoming increasingly useful as a complementary tool in agricultural extension. Randomization-based inference can be used to take into account spillover effects in the analysis rather than the design phase of an experiment. This is the first study to address seed quality of potato tubers in a real-world setting using videos.
Driven by increased demand from both local and export markets and facilitated by far-reaching liberalization and privatization policies, the dairy sub-sector in Uganda has undergone significant changes in the last decade. With a comparative advantage in milk production, the southwest of Uganda has started to attract considerable Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in processing capacity, mainly targeting the export market. As a result, processing capacity increased five-fold and dairy became Uganda’s third most important export product, coming from negligible amounts a decade earlier. In this study, we use data collected at different nodes within the value chain to identify some of the key innovations in these value chains. This is done by comparing the area that received the bulk of FDI to a similar area that did not. Furthermore, we also provide an econometric analysis that focuses on the integration of value chain actors into modern value chains more broadly defined. We find that dairy value chains are transforming rapidly, but innovations are more pronounced in areas that received the bulk of FDI. Our analysis further underscores the importance of milk collection centers, which often take the form of farmer cooperatives, in providing many of the support services that enable other actors in the value chain to produce sufficient milk, and maintain milk sanitation levels necessary for a modern export sector to emerge.
Agricultural advisory services generally rely on interpersonal knowledge transfers by agricultural extension agents who visit farmers to provide information. This approach is not always effective and has proved hard to scale sustainably, particularly in highly dispersed smallholder farming systems. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have been advanced as a promising way to overcome many of the problems associated with conventional agricultural extension. We evaluate the effectiveness of an ICT‐mediated approach to deliver agricultural information in a field experiment conducted among small‐scale maize farmers in eastern Uganda. Three complementary technologies designed to address both informational and behavioral constraints to technical change are considered. First, we investigate the effectiveness of audiovisual messages (video) as a means of delivering information on input use and improved maize management practices to farmers. Second, we quantify the additional impact of complementing video with an interactive voice response (IVR) service. Third, we estimate the incremental effect of time‐sensitive short message services (SMS) messages designed to remind farmers about applying key practices at specific points during the season. We find that households that were shown a short video on how to become better maize farmers were performing significantly better on a knowledge test, more likely to apply recommended practices, and more likely to use fertilizer than households that did not view the video. These same households also reported maize yields about 10.5% higher than those that did not view the video. We find little evidence of an incremental effect of the IVR service or SMS reminders.
Optimal decision making among the poor is often hampered by insufficient knowledge, false beliefs or wrong perceptions. This paper investigates the role of information in the decision to use modern inputs and adopt recommended agronomic practices among rice farmers in Uganda. Using field experiments, I tested whether the provision of technical information about the correct use of modern inputs and practices affects adoption of these technologies, and subsequent rice production. In addition, I assessed whether providing information aimed at changing the perception of the expected returns on such intensification investments led to different outcomes. In both experiments, the treatments took the form of short agricultural extension information videos shown to individual farmers using tablet computers. I found that both interventions resulted in increased intensification of rice cultivation, but only after accounting for the possibility of interference between farmers. These results confirm the importance of peer effects in increasing the effectiveness of information for technology adoption.
The Food Consumption Score (FCS), a food frequency indicator developed by the World Food Programme (WFP) that aims to capture both diet quantity and quality of household food consumption, has been validated only against calorie intake in a limited number of rather small countries. This article examines the potential of FCS to capture variation in diet quantity and quality using the 2004/5 Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey (HCES) conducted in the DRC. In addition to quantifying the strength of association between FCS and a series of benchmark variables, a set of nutrient-consistent regional adequacy levels is proposed as an alternative to the standard WFP’s cut-off in identifying food insecure households. We point out several key issues. First, for a country the size of the DRC, but possibly in other settings too, it is necessary to adopt a geographically disaggregated approach to account for regional diversity in food systems and resulting diets. Second, FCS can indeed capture qualitative aspects of food consumption in addition to quantitative ones. Third, increasing the number of food groups, removing their associated weights or truncating their food group score does not structurally improve FCS’s correlation with the benchmark variables. Fourth, the WFP’s threshold is only weakly consistent in terms of nutrient adequacy, marginally relevant to each of the country’s regions and markedly less sensitive and specific compared to the set of nutrient-consistent regional thresholds, which we propose based on the empirical relation between FCS and the mean adequacy ratio (MAR). Lastly, despite several methodological challenges, this work demonstrates the potential use of HCES to conduct this sort of food security validation exercises.
The baraza project, initiated in 2009, is a government-led initiative in Uganda that aims to increase the quality of public service delivery through the provision of information and involvement of beneficiaries in project monitoring by means of providing citizens with an advocacy forum. This article provides a qualitative assessment of the self-identified pathways through which barazas are thought to influence public service delivery, as expressed by participant stakeholders. It also explores motivating factors behind behavioural changes of stakeholders, hindrances to achieving positive outcomes, and opportunities for the implementation of future barazas.
For developing countries, whose governments are faced with volatile world food prices, the appropriate policy response hinges on who are the likely winners and losers. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the impact of higher commodity prices on different subgroups of society. We compare the results of a method that is popular with policy makers because of its parsimony and ease of interpretation with the results of a more complex and data-intensive general-equilibrium model. Using historical prices between 2008 and 2011 for Uganda, we find that both methods predict high prices benefit poor rural farmers, but more so if a more elaborate model is used.
The use of modern inputs such as synthetic fertilizers is suggested as the best way to increase crop yields in an ecologically sustainable way. However, such inputs may be perceived as risky, and adoption may depend on how much extra risk a farm household can afford. This article describes the potential for fertilizer and pesticide use among Ugandan small-holder rice and potato farmers. In addition, it documents patterns observed in socio-economic data that suggest risk is an important barrier to sustainable crop intensification practices. We find that households that engage in risk management strategies, such as investing in risk reducing technology or engaging in precautionary savings, are more likely to practice intensified cropping. We also elaborate on the policy consequences.
To feed a growing population, agricultural productivity needs to increase dramatically. Agricultural extension information, with its public, non-rival nature, is generally undersupplied, and public provision remains challenging. In this study, simple agricultural extension video messages, delivered through Android tablets, were tested in the field to determine if they increased farmers’ knowledge of recommended practices on (i) potato seed selection and (ii) seed storage and handling among a sample of potato farmers in southwestern Uganda. Using a field experiment with ex ante matching in a factorial design, it was established that showing agricultural extension videos significantly increased farmers’ knowledge. However, results suggested impact pathways that went beyond simply replicating what was shown in the video. Video messages may have triggered a process of abstraction, whereby farmers applied insights gained in one context to a different context.
Rapidly expanding mobile network coverage in developing countries offers new ways to reach poor farmers in isolated places. This article explores the potential for Information and Communication Technology to provide agricultural information and extension services to smallholder farmers, and links this to empirical insights of an intervention in Uganda, where community knowledge workers rely on mobile devices to deliver context- and time-sensitive data to farmers. Consistent with theoretical insights related to information inefficiencies, we find that the intervention leads farmers to move away from low-risk low-return crops toward more commercially oriented commodities. Our analysis also suggests that, for the case of maize, the intervention causes farmers to sell less on the market, but at significantly higher prices.
Human fertility can affect agricultural production through its effect on supply of agricultural labor. Using the fact that in traditional, patriarchal societies, sons are generally preferred to daughters, we isolate exogenous variation in the number of children born to a mother and relate it to the agricultural labor supply and production in Uganda, which has a dominant agricultural sector and high fertility. We find that fertility has a sizable negative effect on household labor allocation to subsistence agriculture. Households with lower fertility devote significantly more time to land preparation and weeding; larger households grow less matooke and sweet potatoes. We find no significant effect on agricultural productivity in terms of yield per land area.
After two debt relief initiatives launched in 1996 (the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative, HIPC) and in 1999 (The enhanced HIPC initiative), the G7 decided to go further by canceling (most of) the remaining multilateral debt for these HIPC countries through the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI, 2005). Building on earlier literature that tries to assess the fiscal response effects of HIPC debt relief, we extend this assessment by explicitly including the fiscal response effects of MDRI debt relief, and by using an extended dataset and alternative econometric techniques, in order to have sufficient hindsight and better tackle methodological issues such as country-specific effects. We confirm earlier findings that debt relief, and especially the enhanced HIPC initiative, has had a positive impact on recipient country total domestic revenue and public investment (as percentage of GDP). Additionally, thanks to our large observation span, we also observe that the MDRI led to a significant increase in current primary expenditures and domestic revenue ratios, although these effects are on average smaller than the HIPC Initiative ones.
This research was also featured in The Economist.
In rural African societies, socioeconomic differentiation linked to gender and social status exerts an important influence on the distribution of common-pool resources. Through a behavioral experiment conducted in 2008 in rural Tanzania, this contribution examines the influence of gender and social status on distribution behavior of users of self-governed common watersheds. It finds that men and women with low social status distribute water equally when water is abundant but keep larger shares when water is scarce, although low-status women try to be as fair as possible at the expense of their returns from irrigated agriculture. Men of high social status keep more than half of the available water for themselves, both in abundance and scarcity, and deprive others from sizeable returns from irrigated agriculture. Women of high social status share altruistically when water is abundant and equally when water is scarce, giving up on returns from irrigated agriculture.
This research was also featured in The Economist.
We revisit a methodology to gauge the short-term effect of price changes on smallholder farmer’s welfare that is popular amongst policy makers and academia. Realising that farmers face substantial seasonal price volatility over the course of an agricultural year, we pay particular attention to the timing of sales and purchases. In addition we depart from the implicit assumption that all farmers scattered across rural areas face the same prices when interacting with markets. Using maize marketing during the 2007–2008 agricultural season in a sample of smallholders in Tanzania as an illustration, we find that especially poor farmers face greater losses than what a standard analysis would suggest. We also relate our methodology to factors that are likely to affect potential benefits or costs from inter-temporal and spatial price dispersion, such as means of transport, access to price information and credit.
We study repeated water allocation decisions among small scale irrigation users in Tanzania. In a treatment replicating water scarcity conditions, convexities in production make that substantial efficiency gains can be obtained by deviating from equal sharing, leading to an equity–efficiency trade-off. In a repeated game setting, it becomes possible to reconcile efficiency with equity by rotating the person who receives the largest share, but such a strategy requires a longer run perspective. Correlating experimental data from an irrigation game with individual time preference data, we find that less patient irrigators are less likely to use a rotation strategy.
This article studies how users of scarce common water resources deal with equity-efficiency trade-offs. For this purpose, we conduct a field lab experiment in Tanzania that simulates the distribution of irrigation water between upstream and downstream users. We find a strong preference for equal sharing even if this comes with large foregone efficiency gains. However, we also find indications that efficiency considerations are taken into account. (Selfish) deviations from equal sharing are more likely implemented when they are efficiency-enhancing. Finally, we detect a tendency to alternate between altruistic and selfish sharing, which reconciles equity and efficiency considerations.
Assumptions about individual time preferences are important for explanations of poverty and development. Data from a large-scale elicitation exercise in Tanzania show significantly higher levels of impatience in urban areas than in rural areas. This result remains robust to adding controls for socio-economic differences between rural and urban areas, which possibly correlate with time preferences. We attribute this to differences in ‘modernisation’ between urban and rural areas, with modernisation leading to increased impatience. This is corroborated by the observed positive correlation between impatience and education; the latter being an important vehicle of modernisation for traditional societies in Tanzania.
Recent research underscores the dual role played by institutions for deciphering the financial globalization – growth nexus. On the one hand, for capital account liberalization to be growth enhancing, a critical level of local institutional quality is needed. On the other hand, increased integration in the global financial system strengthens these countries’ institutions. We argue that this complex relationship may give rise to multiple equilibria in the dynamics of financial global integration: haphazard capital account liberalization may lead to situations where well integrated nations become increasingly better integrated, while poorly integrated nations are left at the margin. To test this hypothesis, we check whether controlling for the quality of institutions eliminates conditional convergence of global financial integration. Our results confirm that growth in financial integration is non-linear, and that this non-linearity disappears once we control for the quality of institutions.
Have donors changed their aid-allocation criteria over the past three decades toward greater selectivity, a frequently stated goal of the international development community? Using data on how 22 donors allocated their bilateral aid among 147 countries over 1970–2004, the article finds that after the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989 and especially in the late 1990s, bilateral aid responded more to poverty and the quality of the policy and institutional environment in the recipient countries. Furthermore, the sensitivity of aid allocation to the country’s size and its debt burden has declined over time. These results are robust to different samples and model specifications, various econometric techniques, and alternative measures of institutional quality. While the specific factors causing these changes cannot be identified—these presumably include geopolitical and economic concerns and the many changes in the international aid architecture—donors still differ greatly in their selectivity. This suggests that further, multifaceted reforms are needed to ensure even greater selectivity of aid.
As part of the efforts of the international donor community to scale up aid to Africa, substantial debt relief has been granted in recent years through the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and its successor, the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative. This paper tries to assess, for a sample of 24 African countries that have at least reached decision point status in the HIPC Initiative, to what extent this debt relief has created fiscal space in recipient country budgets, and what, on average, the actual fiscal response effects have been, relative to other types of aid. Inspired by the fiscal response literature, we model public finance behaviour as a system of structural equations and estimate the reduced form parameters in a Vector Autoregressive framework. In general, we are unable to find evidence that debt relief might provoke no or even perverse fiscal responses. On average, debt relief affects public finance behaviour in a desired way, with effects being most similar to those of its most direct substitute, programme grants.
During the 1990s, the Zambian economy underwent major structural adjustments. This paper presents an application of a recently proposed poverty decomposition that attributes changes in poverty to income growth, changes in inequality and population dynamics. Our results confirm earlier findings that the existence of a severe urban bias in the economy effectively shielded large parts of the rural population from the economic slump caused by the structural adjustments. In addition, we find that the exodus from urban centres that followed the adjustments contributed significantly to the increase in national poverty. The latter finding highlights the importance of considering population movements when studying poverty, especially in situations where policy changes affect migrant labour, as was the case for the Zambian copper industry.
Pushed by increasing availability of price data and extensive market liberalisation efforts in many developing countries, research on food market integration has evolved rapidly over the last two decades. Empirical methods to measure market integration diverged in two directions: on the one hand, there is the parity bounds model (PBM) using a switching regressions technique, while on the other hand the use of threshold autoregressive (TAR) models has been proposed. This article provides a discussion on the two methods and argues that TAR models are better able to capture the dynamics of the arbitrage process underlying interconnected markets. Furthermore, we extend the standard TAR model to include a time trend in both the threshold and the adjustment parameter. Using weekly maize price data on seven selected markets in Tanzania, we illustrate how both transaction cost and the speed of adjustment have changed during the nineties.
Poverty indicators are generally identified on the basis of household consumption expenditure data drawn from nationally representative household budget surveys. In this study, we explore the potential role for more qualitative methods in generating poverty indicators and profiles that incorporate local perspectives on poverty. More specifically, on the basis of participatory wealth rankings, we identify covariates that could serve as poverty indicators. Furthermore, we check the performance of these indicators when using a more conventional indicator or well-being. To do so, we conducted participatory wealth rankings in four villages in the Southern Highlands of Tanzania. Then, we administered a small questionnaire-based survey to the ranked households to probe for possible poverty indicators that can broadly be classified under four categories, namely household characteristics, human capital, housing and durables, productive assets. We find that most of the routinely used poverty indicators remain valid, but for some, we also find interesting differences.
Substantial amounts of debt relief have been granted to a set of low-income countries, as an alternative aid modality. Although the theoretical case for debt relief is firmly established, only empirical analysis can show whether debt relief is indeed a (more) effective mode of aid delivery. We investigate the linkages between debt relief and other fiscal variables such as current expenditure, government investment, taxation and domestic borrowing, in comparison to the effects of grants and concessional loans. We find that the fiscal impact of HIPC debt relief follows fairly complex dynamics. For example, debt relief initially reduces government investment, but the effect becomes positive after two years, well outperforming other modes of aid delivery.